New Year's Offensive

The New Year's Offensive, also known more specifically as the New Year's Offensive of 2025, was a major offensive action undertaken by the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China from New Year's Eve of 2024 through January 5, 2025, and the instigating event of the 2025 Crisis.

Infuriated by massive sanctions placed on it by western powers following the discovery of an illegal chemical weapons distribution operation being carried out by elements of the Russian military in the occupied region of Chernakhovosk, Ukraine, Russia refused to submit to international investigation, fiercely denying the existence of any such operation. In response, Russia placed its own sanctions upon the West, shutting down oil supply lines to much of Europe, resulting in major energy shortages across large swaths of the continent. These actions resulted in further increases in tensions with EU and NATO member states, resulting in an increased NATO military presence near Russia's western borders. In the east, Japan demanded the removal of Russian forces from Burevestnik Base on the disputed island of Iturup. In the meantime, Russia moved aggressively to build stronger economic and military ties with China, who had not complied with the UN sanctions.

In December of 2024, Russia released a large report from an internal investigation into the chemical weapons smuggling in Ukraine, which claimed that no significant evidence had been found to support the existence of any effort or conspiracy within the Russian government to violate the 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention or to provide weaponry, chemical or otherwise, to internationally recognized terrorist organizations. With this 'evidence' in hand, Russia demanded the uplifting of sanctions by the end of the year, otherwise it would consider the sanctions an act of aggression, and that they and their Chinese allies would "respond accordingly". Unsatisfied, the UN stated that it would only begin to lift the sanctions if an independent, international investigation was allowed, to which the Russians again refused.

On New Years Eve, as midnight fell upon the northeasternmost islands of Japan, a massive Murmansk-BN radio jamming system was activated at Burevestnik Base, blinding a large portion of the Japanese defense network. Russian forces descended upon Hokkaido, with elements of the 343rd Naval Infantry Brigade landing in the coastal towns of Shibetsu and Nemuro, while VDV paratroopers from the 88th Guards Airborne Brigade deployed in and around the towns of Betsukai, Nakashibetsu, and Teshikaga. The roads between the towns were quickly secured and cleared, allowing for SAM systems and both conventional and ballistic missile artillery to be rolled into and throughout the area, while a naval blockade force moved into position offshore. Soon after this, the Chinese Navy moved in and established footholds on the Senkaku Islands in the extreme south of Japan, as well as on the Spratly Islands, Pratas Islands, and Macclesfield Bank in the South China Sea. Back in Hokkaido, by daybreak Russian forces had gained total control of the Nemuro and Kushiro Subprefectures, and Russian aircraft from Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Vladivostok began landing in the Nakashibetsu and Kushiro Airports.